When international tensions escalate, whether it’s the current situation in Iran, the Russia-Ukraine war, or conflicts elsewhere, the ripple effects don’t always stop at borders, says Ian Martin, Director of Risk and Intelligence at the security and facilities management contractor Bidvest Noonan.
In the UK, private security teams must respond with heightened vigilance, stronger collaboration with police, and a proactive approach to risk intelligence. Reacting is no longer enough; security now demands staying one step ahead.
The best equipped private security providers employ specialist analysts to watch both global and local events and build a picture of what that means for their clients. Analysts and other intelligence specialists come from a range of backgrounds, drawing on expertise across the spectrum of high-impact threats. They use tools and strategies to conduct threat analyses. Intelligence gathered then enables threat-notification capabilities to ensure organisations stay ahead of potential risks.
The reality is straightforward: geopolitical instability, like the current situation in the Middle East, often changes the threat environment at home. It can lead to protest activity at public venues, hostile reconnaissance and can also increase the likelihood of domestic terror attacks including lone-actor violence. Of course, the impact of global conflicts is hard to predict, and is in constant flux. So having a team working proactively to conduct risk assessments and make sure clients are prepared for potential activities, leveraging years of security experience and local knowledge, is key.
Understanding the domestic impact
In this complex threat landscape, it’s crucial to be clear about what we’re actually responding to. In this instance, the risks we monitor arise from international events that result in extremist behaviour, activism-linked disruption, and state-linked activity on UK soil.
The UK’s national terrorism threat level is [as of May 7] at ‘severe’, meaning an attack is considered highly likely. During periods of escalating international tension, we don’t see sudden shifts in overall posture. What changes is emphasis. Security teams need to sharpen focus on early indicators of planned action: unusual reconnaissance activity around sites, changes in protest patterns and any behaviour that suggests hostile intent. The speed at which risk profiles can evolve is itself a factor that teams also need to manage.
For organisations with visible international associations, government buildings, defence-related sites, and institutions with symbolic significance, the background risk elevates. This is where private security’s role is vital. We’re often the first line of observation, the eyes and ears on the ground that can spot something out of place before it develops into a genuine threat.
The protest environment
The UK’s protest environment is becoming increasingly volatile. International conflicts, by their very nature, spark passionate responses, with multiple groups mobilising simultaneously, raising the risk of disruption and confrontation. Tensions between opposing movements are likely, and direct action against government policies or organisations linked to the conflict should be anticipated. In this scenario, clear escalation plans and close coordination with local authorities are essential.
For security teams, this means robust perimeter measures, effective access control, comprehensive CCTV coverage and staff who are briefed on early warning signs. It also means open-source monitoring: understanding what’s being planned, where activity might concentrate and what the likely scale and tone will be.
The key is proportionate response. Heavy handed approaches escalate tension. Professional security management means facilitating legitimate protest while protecting people, property and operations. It’s a balance that requires experience, judgement and constant communication with public authorities.
Flexibility matters too. In the current geopolitical climate, experienced analysts are aware of how quickly assumptions can become outdated. What seems stable one week can shift dramatically the next, especially when global events intersect with domestic activism, logistics, and infrastructure pressures.
Collaboration with police
None of this works in isolation. Private security’s effectiveness depends on strong collaboration with police and intelligence services. We share information, coordinate responses and ensure there’s no gap between what we observe and what law enforcement needs to know.
Regular briefings, collaborative management of risk and shared intelligence allow both parties to anticipate threats, manage crowd dynamics, and respond quickly to incidents. By working hand-in-hand, private security and law enforcement can close gaps, reduce duplication, and ensure public safety is maintained even when global events spark local tensions.
What organisations should expect from private security teams
For clients and partners, the question often asked is what good security looks like during these periods. Expect your security provider to have reviewed threat assessments for your sites that have relevant exposure, including (but not limited to) those linked to government activity and international supply chains. Communication plans should be tested to ensure information can be shared quickly if incidents develop.
Awareness of protest activity should be maintained, drawing on open‑source monitoring and experienced interpretation rather than headline reporting alone. And teams should routinely be trained in recognising and responding to hostile behaviour.
Most importantly, understand that effective security during volatile periods comes from proactive risk intelligence, informed vigilance, professional judgement and operational frameworks that allow for calm, proportionate responses.